Eleven Wonders 0–0 Asante Kotoko: Result & Stats

Eleven Wonders

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Asante Kotoko

3/21/2022

Premier League · Round 21Ohene Ameyaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Eleven Wonders35%

×Draw32%

Asante Kotoko34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eleven WondersExpected goals in this matchAsante Kotoko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.94

Eleven Wonders

0.96

Asante Kotoko

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 109 away

1.05

creates per match

0.84

1.03

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Eleven Wonders

1.05

Asante Kotoko

0.84

allows per match

Eleven Wonders

1.03

Asante Kotoko

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eleven Wonders+0.00on par

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wonders ↓

Asante Kotoko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Eleven Wonders or draw

66%

Eleven Wonders or Asante Kotoko

68%

Draw or Asante Kotoko

65%

Winning margin

Eleven Wonders wins by 2+

13%

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Eleven Wonders 1+ goals

62%

Eleven Wonders 2+ goals

25%

Eleven Wonders 3+ goals

7%

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals

61%

Asante Kotoko 2+ goals

24%

Asante Kotoko 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wonders (draw refunded)

51%

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wonders at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.03 · 58 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wonders attack 1.05 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.96

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Eleven Wonders defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Eleven Wonders scores more

35%

level

32%

Asante Kotoko scores more

34%

Eleven Wonders at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Eleven Wonders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff