Eleven Wise 0–1 Nsuopun Fidelity: Result & Stats

Eleven Wise

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nsuopun Fidelity

3/1/2026

Division One League · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Eleven Wise42%

×Draw32%

Nsuopun Fidelity26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eleven WiseExpected goals in this matchNsuopun Fidelity

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.77

Eleven Wise

1.06

Nsuopun Fidelity

0.77

Eleven Wise creates 38% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

0.73

0.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Eleven Wise

1.13

Nsuopun Fidelity

0.73

allows per match

Eleven Wise

0.80

Nsuopun Fidelity

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eleven Wise+0.00on par

Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wise ↓

Nsuopun Fidelity →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Eleven Wise or draw

74%

Eleven Wise or Nsuopun Fidelity

68%

Draw or Nsuopun Fidelity

58%

Winning margin

Eleven Wise wins by 2+

17%

Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Eleven Wise 1+ goals

65%

Eleven Wise 2+ goals

29%

Eleven Wise 3+ goals

9%

Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals

54%

Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals

18%

Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wise (draw refunded)

62%

Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wise at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Nsuopun Fidelity away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wise attack 1.13 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 0.73 + Eleven Wise defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eleven Wise scores more

42%

level

32%

Nsuopun Fidelity scores more

26%

Eleven Wise at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Eleven Wise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff