Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eléctrico vs Benfica Castelo Branco — League #459 2026

Eléctrico
Eléctrico
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
T. Varandas 20'
O. Garcia 64'
P. Correia 48'
Sacra 25'
9/28/2025League #459League #459 · Group C - 5Estadio Municipal de Ponte de Sôr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eléctrico33%
×Draw22%
Benfica Castelo Branco45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eléctrico
1.63
Benfica Castelo Branco
1.92

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Eléctrico
2.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
1.50

allows per match

Eléctrico
2.33
Benfica Castelo Branco
1.25

finishing

Eléctrico+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eléctrico ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Eléctrico or draw
55%
Eléctrico or Benfica Castelo Branco
78%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
67%

Winning margin

Eléctrico wins by 2+
16%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Eléctrico 1+ goals
80%
Eléctrico 2+ goals
48%
Eléctrico 3+ goals
22%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
85%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
57%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Eléctrico (draw refunded)
43%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eléctrico at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eléctrico attack 2.00 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 1.50 + Eléctrico defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eléctrico scores more
33%
level
22%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
45%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
T. Varandas
25'
Sacra
45'
48'
P. Correia
64'
O. Garcia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #459: Eléctrico 1–3 Benfica Castelo Branco

Benfica Castelo Branco beat Eléctrico 3-1 in League #459 on September 28, 2025.

Goals: T. Varandas (20'), Sacra (25'), P. Correia (48'), O. Garcia (64').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ponte de Sôr in Ponte de Sôr.