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Eléctrico vs Benfica Castelo Branco — Taça de Portugal 2018

Eléctrico
Eléctrico
FT
0 – 7
Benfica Castelo Branco
Benfica Castelo Branco
9/8/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstadio Municipal de Ponte de Sôr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Eléctrico2%
×Draw5%
Benfica Castelo Branco93%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eléctrico
0.46
Benfica Castelo Branco
4.00

Benfica Castelo Branco creates 770% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Eléctrico
0.33
Benfica Castelo Branco
3.00

allows per match

Eléctrico
5.00
Benfica Castelo Branco
0.60

finishing

Eléctrico+0.00on par
Benfica Castelo Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eléctrico ↓

Benfica Castelo Branco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–210%
0–314%
0–414%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–25%
1–36%
1–46%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (14%) · grid covers 71% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Eléctrico or draw
7%
Eléctrico or Benfica Castelo Branco
95%
Draw or Benfica Castelo Branco
98%

Winning margin

Eléctrico wins by 2+
0%
Benfica Castelo Branco wins by 2+
82%

Team goals

Eléctrico 1+ goals
37%
Eléctrico 2+ goals
8%
Eléctrico 3+ goals
1%
Benfica Castelo Branco 1+ goals
98%
Benfica Castelo Branco 2+ goals
90%
Benfica Castelo Branco 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Eléctrico (draw refunded)
2%
Benfica Castelo Branco (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eléctrico at home — creates 0.33, concedes 5.00 · 3 matches

Benfica Castelo Branco away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eléctrico attack 0.33 + Benfica Castelo Branco defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.46

Benfica Castelo Branco attack 3.00 + Eléctrico defence 5.00 → ÷2 → 4.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 93%?"

Eléctrico scores more
2%
level
5%
Benfica Castelo Branco scores more
93%

Benfica Castelo Branco at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "Benfica Castelo Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Eléctrico 0–7 Benfica Castelo Branco

Benfica Castelo Branco beat Eléctrico 7-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 8, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ponte de Sôr in Ponte de Sôr.