Eldense 2–2 Alcorcon: Result & Stats

Eldense

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Alcorcon

Carlos Hernández 73'

Iván Chapela 52'

Chiki 90+6'

E. Addai 66'

9/11/2023

Segunda División · Round 5Estadio Municipal Nuevo Pepico Amat

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Eldense40%

×Draw28%

Alcorcon32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EldenseExpected goals in this matchAlcorcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.11

Eldense

1.26

Alcorcon

1.11

Eldense creates 14% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 105 away

1.19

creates per match

0.90

1.33

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Eldense

1.19

Alcorcon

0.90

allows per match

Eldense

1.33

Alcorcon

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eldense+0.00on par

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eldense ↓

Alcorcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Eldense or draw

68%

Eldense or Alcorcon

72%

Draw or Alcorcon

60%

Winning margin

Eldense wins by 2+

18%

Alcorcon wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Eldense 1+ goals

72%

Eldense 2+ goals

36%

Eldense 3+ goals

13%

Alcorcon 1+ goals

67%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

30%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Eldense (draw refunded)

55%

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eldense at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.33 · 42 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eldense attack 1.19 + Alcorcon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Eldense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eldense scores more

40%

level

28%

Alcorcon scores more

32%

Eldense at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Eldense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

E. Addai

Alcorcon · F

7.9

Match Events

36'

Jean-Sylvain Babin

45+1'

Yan Eteki

46'

Óscar Rivas← Álvaro Bustos

52'

Iván Chapela↳ Toni Abad

58'

E. Addai← Jacobo González

62'

Arnau Ortiz← Cris Montes

66'

E. Addai

72'

Jesús Clemente← Iván Chapela

73'

Juanto← F. Andone

73'

Carlos Hernández↳ Marc Mateu

76'

Dyego Sousa

78'

Víctor García← David Morillas

78'

Juan Artola← Dyego Sousa

79'

Juan Artola

86'

Piña← Sergio Ortu

86'

Pedro Capó← Mario Soberón

86'

Javi Lara← J. Babin

90+6'

Chiki↳ Víctor García

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EldenseAlcorcon

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots13

5Corners2

14Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots13

3On Target4

8Off Target5

6Blocked4

8Inside Box6

9Outside Box7

Passing

59%Possession41%

473Total Passes320

383Accurate Passes225

81%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls7

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2