Alcorcon 0–0 Eldense: Result & Stats

Alcorcon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Eldense

4/28/2024

Segunda División · Round 37Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Alcorcon40%

×Draw29%

Eldense31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AlcorconExpected goals in this matchEldense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.02

Alcorcon

1.20

Eldense

1.02

Alcorcon creates 18% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 42 away

0.90

creates per match

0.95

1.10

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Alcorcon

0.90

Eldense

0.95

allows per match

Alcorcon

1.10

Eldense

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Eldense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Eldense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw

69%

Alcorcon or Eldense

71%

Draw or Eldense

60%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+

17%

Eldense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals

70%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

34%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

12%

Eldense 1+ goals

64%

Eldense 2+ goals

27%

Eldense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

56%

Eldense (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 105 matches

Eldense away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Eldense defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.20

Eldense attack 0.95 + Alcorcon defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Alcorcon scores more

40%

level

29%

Eldense scores more

31%

Alcorcon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Víctor García

Alcorcon · D

7.7

Match Events

24'

Yan Eteki

29'

Joel Jorquera← Iván Chapela

46'

E. Addai← Y. Eteki

46'

Juanto← M. Dauda

63'

Joel Jorquera

65'

Dario Đumić

67'

Álex Bernal← Mario Soberón

69'

Marciano Sanca← Chiki

69'

Javi Lara← Fede Vico

80'

Jacobo González

82'

Dyego Sousa← Jacobo González

84'

Pedro Capó← Sergio Ortu

84'

Cris Montes← Jesús Clemente

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlcorconEldense

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots8

3Corners2

11Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target1

7Off Target1

1Blocked6

2Inside Box5

10Outside Box3

Passing

57%Possession43%

401Total Passes299

313Accurate Passes204

78%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1