Elche 3–1 Castellón: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Castellón

John Donald 74'

Germán Valera 37'

A. Álvarez 30'

Óscar Gil 77'

3/8/2025

Segunda División · Round 30Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Elche48%

×Draw27%

Castellón25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.95

Elche

1.42

Castellón

0.95

Elche creates 49% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 64 away

1.31

creates per match

1.14

0.76

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Castellón

1.14

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Castellón

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Elche or draw

75%

Elche or Castellón

73%

Draw or Castellón

52%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

23%

Castellón wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

76%

Elche 2+ goals

41%

Elche 3+ goals

17%

Castellón 1+ goals

61%

Castellón 2+ goals

25%

Castellón 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

65%

Castellón (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Castellón defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Castellón attack 1.14 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Elche scores more

48%

level

27%

Castellón scores more

25%

Elche at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Álvarez

Elche · F

7.7

Match Events

30'

A. Álvarez↳ Marc Aguado

37'

Germán Valera↳ Josan

46'

A. Lottin← G. Zarfino

50'

Thomas Van den BeltGoal cancelled

59'

John Donald← Óscar Plano

64'

Pejiño← Marc Aguado

64'

N. Castro← Josan

65'

Gonzalo Pastor← M. Jojić

68'

Pedro Bigas

71'

Thomas Van den Belt

74'

John Donald↳ Germán Valera

77'

Óscar Gil

78'

B. Cipenga← Raúl Sánchez

78'

M. Traoré← A. Mabil

81'

D. Affengruber← Bambo Diaby

81'

Jairo Izquierdo← Germán Valera

85'

N. Markanich← Israel Suero

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheCastellón

Overview

57%Possession43%

9Total Shots14

2Corners7

11Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots14

7On Target3

1Off Target7

1Blocked4

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

446Total Passes320

358Accurate Passes242

80%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3