Castellón 0–2 Elche: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Elche

Pedro Bigas 45+1'

M. El Ghezouani 27'

12/22/2024

Segunda División · Round 21Estadio SkyFi Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Castellón44%

×Draw26%

Elche29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchElche

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.11

Castellón

1.42

Elche

1.11

Castellón creates 28% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 86 away

1.56

creates per match

1.07

1.16

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Castellón

1.56

Elche

1.07

allows per match

Castellón

1.16

Elche

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón+0.00on par

Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Elche →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

71%

Castellón or Elche

74%

Draw or Elche

56%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

21%

Elche wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

76%

Castellón 2+ goals

41%

Castellón 3+ goals

17%

Elche 1+ goals

67%

Elche 2+ goals

30%

Elche 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

60%

Elche (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.16 · 64 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.56 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.42

Elche attack 1.07 + Castellón defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Castellón scores more

44%

level

26%

Elche scores more

29%

Castellón at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Fernández

Elche · F

8.9

Match Events

27'

M. El Ghezouani↳ N. Fernández

40'

Mourad El Ghezouani

45+1'

Pedro Bigas↳ N. Fernández

46'

A. Lottin← Dani Villahermosa

46'

J. Willems← Douglas Aurélio

46'

Álvaro Núñez← Pedro Bigas

60'

Josan← Carlos Clerc

60'

A. Álvarez← M. El Ghezouani

68'

Íker Punzano← B. Cipenga

68'

O. Camara← D. Chirino

71'

Jose Salinas

72'

John Donald← Gerard Hernández

78'

Salvador Ruiz

86'

Mario Gaspar← N. Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónElche

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots7

4Corners3

13Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots7

3On Target3

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

410Total Passes339

305Accurate Passes247

74%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1