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Elche vs Almeria — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Almeria
Almeria
José Salinas 4'
L. Suárez 54'
D. Lopy 37'
11/8/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 14Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche43%
×Draw28%
Almeria29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.29
Almeria
1.02

Elche creates 26% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 131 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Almeria
1.28

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Almeria
1.26

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Almeria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elche or draw
71%
Elche or Almeria
72%
Draw or Almeria
57%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
19%
Almeria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
72%
Elche 2+ goals
37%
Elche 3+ goals
14%
Almeria 1+ goals
64%
Almeria 2+ goals
27%
Almeria 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
59%
Almeria (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Almeria attack 1.28 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Elche scores more
43%
level
28%
Almeria scores more
29%

Elche at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
D. LopyAlmeriaAlmeria · M
7.7

Match Events

4'
José Salinas↳ Yago Santiago
14'
Marc Pubill
34'
Álex Centelles
37'
D. Lopy
38'
Dion Lopy
42'
Iddrisu Baba
46'
S. Kaba← M. El Ghezouani
46'
Nico Melamed← Álex Centelles
54'
L. Suárez
60'
Nicolás Fernández
64'
Josan← Yago Santiago
64'
Raúl Guti← Rodrigo Mendoza
66'
Mario Gaspar
68'
Arnau Puigmal← Léo Baptistão
74'
Arnau Puigmal
78'
Bambo Diaby← Mario Gaspar
79'
Fernando Martínez
85'
Álex Pozo← Sergio Arribas
90+1'
Raúl Guti
90+3'
Rachad Dhimi
90+3'
R. Fettal← L. Suárez

Possession

58%Elche

Shots

19Elche

Pass accuracy

51%Elche

Statistics

ElcheAlmeria
Overview
58%Possession42%
19Total Shots11
4Corners1
22Fouls18
Shots
19Total Shots11
4On Target6
9Off Target5
6Blocked0
10Inside Box7
9Outside Box4
Passing
58%Possession42%
481Total Passes355
417Accurate Passes298
87%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
22Fouls18
3Yellow Cards7
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Elche vs Almeria

Almeria beat Elche 2-1 in Segunda División on November 8, 2024.

Goals: José Salinas (4'), D. Lopy (37'), L. Suárez (54').

Elche controlled possession (58%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.