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Almeria vs Elche — Segunda División 2018

Almeria
Almeria
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Elche
Elche
Pere Milla 88'
Fidel 63'
1/26/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 25Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Almeria50%
×Draw26%
Elche25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almeria
1.54
Elche
1.01

Almeria creates 52% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 86 away

creates per match

Almeria
1.79
Elche
1.07

allows per match

Almeria
0.95
Elche
1.28

finishing

Almeria+0.00on par
Elche+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almeria ↓

Elche →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Almeria or draw
75%
Almeria or Elche
74%
Draw or Elche
50%

Winning margin

Almeria wins by 2+
25%
Elche wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Almeria 1+ goals
79%
Almeria 2+ goals
45%
Almeria 3+ goals
20%
Elche 1+ goals
64%
Elche 2+ goals
27%
Elche 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Almeria (draw refunded)
67%
Elche (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almeria at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.95 · 130 matches

Elche away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almeria attack 1.79 + Elche defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Elche attack 1.07 + Almeria defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Almeria scores more
50%
level
26%
Elche scores more
25%

Almeria at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Almeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
FidelElcheElche · M
7.9

Match Events

8'
Darwin Nuñez
35'
Nikola Maraš
38'
Darwin Nuñez
38'
Darwin Nuñez
39'
Valentín Vada
50'
Oscar Regaño
57'
Juan Cruz
59'
Dani Calvo
63'
Fidel↳ Y. Qasmi
67'
Gonzalo Verdú
69'
Jonathan← V. Vada
71'
Iván Sánchez← Josán Fernández
75'
Sergio Aguza← A. Appiah
78'
Dani Albiar← Iván Martos
80'
Manuel Sánchez← O. Mfulu
83'
Pere Milla← Y. Qasmi
84'
Edgar Badia
88'
Pere Milla↳ Fidel

Possession

46%Almeria

Shots

11Almeria

Pass accuracy

50%Almeria

Statistics

AlmeriaElche
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots9
6Corners2
12Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots9
3On Target6
6Off Target2
2Blocked1
8Inside Box6
3Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
410Total Passes483
342Accurate Passes407
83%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls14
4Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
4Offsides2

Almeria 0 – 2 Elche

Elche beat Almeria 2-0 in Segunda División on January 26, 2020.

Goals: Fidel (63'), Pere Milla (88').

Elche controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos in Almería.