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Elche vs Almeria — Segunda División 2018

Elche
Elche
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Almeria
Almeria
Xavi Torres 74' (pen)
Javi Flores 4'
Juan Carlos 64'
Álvaro Giménez 54'
12/22/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 19Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche43%
×Draw28%
Almeria29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche
1.29
Almeria
1.02

Elche creates 26% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 131 away

creates per match

Elche
1.31
Almeria
1.28

allows per match

Elche
0.76
Almeria
1.26

finishing

Elche+0.00on par
Almeria+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Almeria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elche or draw
71%
Elche or Almeria
72%
Draw or Almeria
57%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+
19%
Almeria wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals
72%
Elche 2+ goals
37%
Elche 3+ goals
14%
Almeria 1+ goals
64%
Almeria 2+ goals
27%
Almeria 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)
59%
Almeria (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Almeria away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Almeria defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Almeria attack 1.28 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Elche scores more
43%
level
28%
Almeria scores more
29%

Elche at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
BenjaElcheElche · F
8.2

Match Events

4'
Javi Flores↳ Benja
20'
Manuel Sanchez
29'
Joaquin Arzura
40'
Ivan Sanchez Aguayo
46'
J. Narváez← Romera
54'
Álvaro Giménez
56'
Benja
63'
Alexander Gonzalez
64'
Juan Carlos
69'
Josán Fernández← Manuel Sánchez
69'
S. Kaba← Nino
74'
Xavi TorresPenalty
81'
Javi Flores
83'
Juan Fernández← J. Arzura
84'
Gonzalo Villar← Benja
88'
Xavi Torres
90+2'
P. Caballero← Juan Carlos

Possession

49%Elche

Shots

8Elche

Pass accuracy

50%Elche

Statistics

ElcheAlmeria
Overview
49%Possession51%
8Total Shots13
2Corners5
19Fouls24
Shots
8Total Shots13
5On Target3
2Off Target6
1Blocked4
5Inside Box7
3Outside Box6
Passing
49%Possession51%
304Total Passes303
203Accurate Passes200
67%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls24
6Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides2

Elche 2 – 2 Almeria

Elche and Almeria drew 2-2 in Segunda División on December 22, 2018.

Goals: Javi Flores (4'), Álvaro Giménez (54'), Juan Carlos (64'), Xavi Torres (74' pen).

Almeria controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.