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Elche II vs Callosa Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Elche II
Elche II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Callosa Deportiva
Callosa Deportiva
11/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Campo de Altabix

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Elche II55%
×Draw27%
Callosa Deportiva18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche II
1.46
Callosa Deportiva
0.70

Elche II creates 109% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 18 away

creates per match

Elche II
1.65
Callosa Deportiva
0.67

allows per match

Elche II
0.72
Callosa Deportiva
1.28

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par
Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Callosa Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Elche II or draw
82%
Elche II or Callosa Deportiva
73%
Draw or Callosa Deportiva
45%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+
28%
Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals
77%
Elche II 2+ goals
43%
Elche II 3+ goals
18%
Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals
50%
Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals
16%
Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)
76%
Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Callosa Deportiva away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Callosa Deportiva defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.46

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.67 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Elche II scores more
55%
level
27%
Callosa Deportiva scores more
18%

Elche II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Elche II 0–0 Callosa Deportiva

Elche II and Callosa Deportiva drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Altabix in Elx.