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Callosa Deportiva vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Callosa Deportiva
Callosa Deportiva
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Elche II
Elche II
3/20/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 31Campo de Fútbol El Palmeral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Callosa Deportiva31%
×Draw31%
Elche II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Callosa Deportiva
0.92
Elche II
1.07

Elche II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 77 away

creates per match

Callosa Deportiva
0.83
Elche II
1.25

allows per match

Callosa Deportiva
0.89
Elche II
1.01

finishing

Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par
Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Callosa Deportiva ↓

Elche II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Callosa Deportiva or draw
61%
Callosa Deportiva or Elche II
69%
Draw or Elche II
69%

Winning margin

Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+
11%
Elche II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals
60%
Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals
23%
Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals
7%
Elche II 1+ goals
66%
Elche II 2+ goals
29%
Elche II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)
44%
Elche II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Callosa Deportiva at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.83 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.92

Elche II attack 1.25 + Callosa Deportiva defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Callosa Deportiva scores more
31%
level
31%
Elche II scores more
39%

Elche II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Callosa Deportiva 0–4 Elche II

Elche II beat Callosa Deportiva 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Palmeral in Callosa de Segura.