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Elche II vs Atzeneta — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Elche II
Elche II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Atzeneta
Atzeneta
10/14/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 6Campo Diego Quiles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Elche II44%
×Draw29%
Atzeneta27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche II
1.26
Atzeneta
0.92

Elche II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 97 away

creates per match

Elche II
1.65
Atzeneta
1.12

allows per match

Elche II
0.72
Atzeneta
0.87

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par
Atzeneta+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Atzeneta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Elche II or draw
73%
Elche II or Atzeneta
71%
Draw or Atzeneta
56%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+
20%
Atzeneta wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals
72%
Elche II 2+ goals
36%
Elche II 3+ goals
13%
Atzeneta 1+ goals
60%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
23%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)
62%
Atzeneta (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Atzeneta away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.87 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.26

Atzeneta attack 1.12 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elche II scores more
44%
level
29%
Atzeneta scores more
27%

Elche II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Elche II 1–3 Atzeneta

Atzeneta beat Elche II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Diego Quiles in Elx.