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Atzeneta vs Elche II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Atzeneta
Atzeneta
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Elche II
Elche II
1/7/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 15Campo De Futbol El Regit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Atzeneta39%
×Draw29%
Elche II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atzeneta
1.18
Elche II
1.06

Atzeneta creates 11% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 77 away

creates per match

Atzeneta
1.35
Elche II
1.25

allows per match

Atzeneta
0.87
Elche II
1.01

finishing

Atzeneta+0.00on par
Elche II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atzeneta ↓

Elche II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atzeneta or draw
67%
Atzeneta or Elche II
71%
Draw or Elche II
61%

Winning margin

Atzeneta wins by 2+
16%
Elche II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Atzeneta 1+ goals
69%
Atzeneta 2+ goals
33%
Atzeneta 3+ goals
12%
Elche II 1+ goals
65%
Elche II 2+ goals
29%
Elche II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Atzeneta (draw refunded)
54%
Elche II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atzeneta at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.87 · 98 matches

Elche II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.01 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atzeneta attack 1.35 + Elche II defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.18

Elche II attack 1.25 + Atzeneta defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atzeneta scores more
39%
level
29%
Elche II scores more
33%

Atzeneta at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atzeneta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Atzeneta 3–1 Elche II

Atzeneta beat Elche II 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 7, 2023.

The match was played at Campo De Futbol El Regit in Atzeneta d'Albaida.