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Elbasani vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë — 1st Division 2019

Elbasani
Elbasani
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
11/4/20201st Division1st Division · Round 1Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Elbasani33%
×Draw28%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elbasani
1.13
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.27

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 12% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

Elbasani
1.38
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.09

allows per match

Elbasani
1.46
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.87

finishing

Elbasani+0.00on par
Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elbasani ↓

Egnatia Rrogozhinë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Elbasani or draw
60%
Elbasani or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
72%
Draw or Egnatia Rrogozhinë
67%

Winning margin

Elbasani wins by 2+
13%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Elbasani 1+ goals
68%
Elbasani 2+ goals
31%
Elbasani 3+ goals
11%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
72%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
36%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Elbasani (draw refunded)
45%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elbasani at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë away — creates 1.09, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elbasani attack 1.38 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.13

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.09 + Elbasani defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Elbasani scores more
33%
level
28%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
40%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Elbasani 0–3 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Egnatia Rrogozhinë beat Elbasani 3-0 in 1st Division on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.