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Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Elbasani — 1st Division 2019

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elbasani
Elbasani
2/6/20211st Division1st Division · Round 10Stadiumi Shkumbini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Egnatia Rrogozhinë67%
×Draw21%
Elbasani12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.90
Elbasani
0.67

Egnatia Rrogozhinë creates 184% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 24 away

creates per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
1.50
Elbasani
0.92

allows per match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë
0.41
Elbasani
2.29

finishing

Egnatia Rrogozhinë+0.00on par
Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Egnatia Rrogozhinë ↓

Elbasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Egnatia Rrogozhinë or draw
88%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë or Elbasani
79%
Draw or Elbasani
33%

Winning margin

Egnatia Rrogozhinë wins by 2+
40%
Elbasani wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1+ goals
85%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2+ goals
56%
Egnatia Rrogozhinë 3+ goals
29%
Elbasani 1+ goals
49%
Elbasani 2+ goals
15%
Elbasani 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Egnatia Rrogozhinë (draw refunded)
84%
Elbasani (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.41 · 22 matches

Elbasani away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Egnatia Rrogozhinë attack 1.50 + Elbasani defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.90

Elbasani attack 0.92 + Egnatia Rrogozhinë defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Egnatia Rrogozhinë scores more
67%
level
21%
Elbasani scores more
12%

Egnatia Rrogozhinë at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Egnatia Rrogozhinë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Elbasani

Egnatia Rrogozhinë beat Elbasani 3-0 in 1st Division on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stadiumi Shkumbini in Peqin.