Elbasani 0–1 Apolonia Fier: Result & Stats

Elbasani

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Apolonia Fier

9/14/2019

1st Division · Round 1Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Elbasani37%

×Draw27%

Apolonia Fier36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElbasaniExpected goals in this matchApolonia Fier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.25

Elbasani

1.27

Apolonia Fier

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 95 away

1.38

creates per match

1.05

1.46

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Elbasani

1.38

Apolonia Fier

1.05

allows per match

Elbasani

1.46

Apolonia Fier

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elbasani+0.00on par

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elbasani ↓

Apolonia Fier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Elbasani or draw

64%

Elbasani or Apolonia Fier

73%

Draw or Apolonia Fier

63%

Winning margin

Elbasani wins by 2+

16%

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Elbasani 1+ goals

72%

Elbasani 2+ goals

36%

Elbasani 3+ goals

14%

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals

71%

Apolonia Fier 2+ goals

36%

Apolonia Fier 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Elbasani (draw refunded)

51%

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elbasani at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.17 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elbasani attack 1.38 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.27

Apolonia Fier attack 1.05 + Elbasani defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Elbasani scores more

37%

level

27%

Apolonia Fier scores more

36%

Elbasani at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff