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Apolonia Fier vs Elbasani — 1st Division 2019

Apolonia Fier
Apolonia Fier
FT
7 – 0
HT: 7 – 0
Elbasani
Elbasani
12/7/20191st Division1st Division · Round 10Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Apolonia Fier63%
×Draw21%
Elbasani17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Apolonia Fier
2.04
Elbasani
0.94

Apolonia Fier creates 117% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 24 away

creates per match

Apolonia Fier
1.79
Elbasani
0.92

allows per match

Apolonia Fier
0.96
Elbasani
2.29

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par
Elbasani+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Elbasani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw
83%
Apolonia Fier or Elbasani
79%
Draw or Elbasani
37%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+
39%
Elbasani wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals
87%
Apolonia Fier 2+ goals
60%
Apolonia Fier 3+ goals
33%
Elbasani 1+ goals
61%
Elbasani 2+ goals
24%
Elbasani 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)
79%
Elbasani (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 1.79, concedes 0.96 · 90 matches

Elbasani away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.29 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 1.79 + Elbasani defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.04

Elbasani attack 0.92 + Apolonia Fier defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more
63%
level
21%
Elbasani scores more
17%

Apolonia Fier at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Apolonia Fier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Apolonia Fier vs Elbasani

Apolonia Fier beat Elbasani 7-0 in 1st Division on December 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu in Fieri.