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Elazığspor vs Denizlispor — 1. Lig 2018

Elazığspor
Elazığspor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Denizlispor
Denizlispor
3/2/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 24Şanlıurfa GAP Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elazığspor36%
×Draw25%
Denizlispor39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elazığspor
1.38
Denizlispor
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 52 away

creates per match

Elazığspor
1.12
Denizlispor
1.25

allows per match

Elazığspor
1.65
Denizlispor
1.63

finishing

Elazığspor+0.00on par
Denizlispor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığspor ↓

Denizlispor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Elazığspor or draw
61%
Elazığspor or Denizlispor
75%
Draw or Denizlispor
64%

Winning margin

Elazığspor wins by 2+
16%
Denizlispor wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Elazığspor 1+ goals
75%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
40%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
16%
Denizlispor 1+ goals
77%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
42%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Elazığspor (draw refunded)
48%
Denizlispor (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığspor at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Denizlispor away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.63 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığspor attack 1.12 + Denizlispor defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.38

Denizlispor attack 1.25 + Elazığspor defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elazığspor scores more
36%
level
25%
Denizlispor scores more
39%

Denizlispor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Elazığspor 1–2 Denizlispor

Denizlispor beat Elazığspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on March 2, 2019.

The match was played at Şanlıurfa GAP Stadyumu in Şanlıurfa.