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Denizlispor vs Elazığspor — 1. Lig 2018

Denizlispor
Denizlispor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Elazığspor
Elazığspor
9/29/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 7Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Denizlispor52%
×Draw23%
Elazığspor25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Denizlispor
1.80
Elazığspor
1.18

Denizlispor creates 53% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Denizlispor
1.48
Elazığspor
1.12

allows per match

Denizlispor
1.23
Elazığspor
2.12

finishing

Denizlispor+0.00on par
Elazığspor+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Denizlispor ↓

Elazığspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Denizlispor or draw
75%
Denizlispor or Elazığspor
77%
Draw or Elazığspor
48%

Winning margin

Denizlispor wins by 2+
29%
Elazığspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Denizlispor 1+ goals
83%
Denizlispor 2+ goals
54%
Denizlispor 3+ goals
27%
Elazığspor 1+ goals
69%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
33%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Denizlispor (draw refunded)
67%
Elazığspor (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Denizlispor at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.23 · 52 matches

Elazığspor away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Denizlispor attack 1.48 + Elazığspor defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.80

Elazığspor attack 1.12 + Denizlispor defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Denizlispor scores more
52%
level
23%
Elazığspor scores more
25%

Denizlispor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Denizlispor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Denizlispor vs Elazığspor

Denizlispor beat Elazığspor 3-0 in 1. Lig on September 29, 2018.

The match was played at Denizli Atatürk Stadyumu in Denizli.