El Palmar 3–0 EDMF Churra: Result & Stats

El Palmar

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

EDMF Churra

11/17/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 13Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

El Palmar48%

×Draw25%

EDMF Churra27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

El PalmarExpected goals in this matchEDMF Churra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.15

El Palmar

1.63

EDMF Churra

1.15

El Palmar creates 42% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 28 away

1.33

creates per match

0.96

1.33

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

El Palmar

1.33

EDMF Churra

0.96

allows per match

El Palmar

1.33

EDMF Churra

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par

EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

EDMF Churra →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw

73%

El Palmar or EDMF Churra

75%

Draw or EDMF Churra

52%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+

25%

EDMF Churra wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals

80%

El Palmar 2+ goals

48%

El Palmar 3+ goals

22%

EDMF Churra 1+ goals

68%

EDMF Churra 2+ goals

32%

EDMF Churra 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)

64%

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

El Palmar scores more

48%

level

25%

EDMF Churra scores more

27%

El Palmar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff