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EDMF Churra vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
El Palmar
El Palmar
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 15Campo de EDMF Churra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

EDMF Churra44%
×Draw27%
El Palmar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EDMF Churra
1.34
El Palmar
1.03

EDMF Churra creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 111 away

creates per match

EDMF Churra
1.10
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

EDMF Churra
1.03
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

EDMF Churra+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EDMF Churra ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

EDMF Churra or draw
71%
EDMF Churra or El Palmar
73%
Draw or El Palmar
56%

Winning margin

EDMF Churra wins by 2+
20%
El Palmar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

EDMF Churra 1+ goals
74%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
39%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
15%
El Palmar 1+ goals
64%
El Palmar 2+ goals
28%
El Palmar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
60%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EDMF Churra at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.03 · 30 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EDMF Churra attack 1.10 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.34

El Palmar attack 1.03 + EDMF Churra defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

EDMF Churra scores more
44%
level
27%
El Palmar scores more
29%

EDMF Churra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "EDMF Churra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: EDMF Churra vs El Palmar

El Palmar beat EDMF Churra 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de EDMF Churra in Murcia.