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El Palmar vs Cartagena FC — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

El Palmar
El Palmar
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
3/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 26Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

El Palmar42%
×Draw26%
Cartagena FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palmar
1.43
Cartagena FC
1.21

El Palmar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 44 away

creates per match

El Palmar
1.33
Cartagena FC
1.09

allows per match

El Palmar
1.33
Cartagena FC
1.52

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par
Cartagena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

Cartagena FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw
68%
El Palmar or Cartagena FC
74%
Draw or Cartagena FC
58%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+
20%
Cartagena FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals
76%
El Palmar 2+ goals
42%
El Palmar 3+ goals
17%
Cartagena FC 1+ goals
70%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
34%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)
57%
Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

Cartagena FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + Cartagena FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cartagena FC attack 1.09 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

El Palmar scores more
42%
level
26%
Cartagena FC scores more
32%

El Palmar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Palmar vs Cartagena FC

El Palmar beat Cartagena FC 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar in El Palmar.