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Cartagena FC vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Cartagena FC
Cartagena FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Palmar
El Palmar
10/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 9Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Cartagena FC39%
×Draw26%
El Palmar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cartagena FC
1.38
El Palmar
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 111 away

creates per match

Cartagena FC
1.18
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Cartagena FC
1.55
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Cartagena FC+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cartagena FC ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Cartagena FC or draw
65%
Cartagena FC or El Palmar
74%
Draw or El Palmar
61%

Winning margin

Cartagena FC wins by 2+
18%
El Palmar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cartagena FC 1+ goals
75%
Cartagena FC 2+ goals
40%
Cartagena FC 3+ goals
16%
El Palmar 1+ goals
72%
El Palmar 2+ goals
37%
El Palmar 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Cartagena FC (draw refunded)
53%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cartagena FC at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 44 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cartagena FC attack 1.18 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.38

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Cartagena FC defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cartagena FC scores more
39%
level
26%
El Palmar scores more
35%

Cartagena FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cartagena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cartagena FC 1 – 0 El Palmar

Cartagena FC beat El Palmar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Gómez Meseguer in Cartagena.