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El Ejido vs Antequera — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
CANC
00:00
Antequera
Antequera
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 30Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

El Ejido29%
×Draw27%
Antequera44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
1.09
Antequera
1.40

Antequera creates 28% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 27 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Antequera
1.41

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Antequera
1.00

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Antequera+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Antequera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
56%
El Ejido or Antequera
73%
Draw or Antequera
71%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
11%
Antequera wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
66%
El Ejido 2+ goals
30%
El Ejido 3+ goals
10%
Antequera 1+ goals
75%
Antequera 2+ goals
41%
Antequera 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
40%
Antequera (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Antequera away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Antequera defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Antequera attack 1.41 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

El Ejido scores more
29%
level
27%
Antequera scores more
44%

Antequera at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

El Ejido face Antequera (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 returns with El Ejido hosting Antequera. Match starts March 15, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

El Ejido host Antequera at Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.