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Antequera vs El Ejido — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Antequera
Antequera
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
El Ejido
El Ejido
10/31/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 11Estadio El Maulí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Antequera47%
×Draw27%
El Ejido26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antequera
1.40
El Ejido
0.96

Antequera creates 46% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 49 away

creates per match

Antequera
1.38
El Ejido
1.16

allows per match

Antequera
0.77
El Ejido
1.43

finishing

Antequera+0.00on par
El Ejido+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antequera ↓

El Ejido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Antequera or draw
74%
Antequera or El Ejido
73%
Draw or El Ejido
53%

Winning margin

Antequera wins by 2+
23%
El Ejido wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Antequera 1+ goals
75%
Antequera 2+ goals
41%
Antequera 3+ goals
17%
El Ejido 1+ goals
62%
El Ejido 2+ goals
25%
El Ejido 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Antequera (draw refunded)
65%
El Ejido (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antequera at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.77 · 26 matches

El Ejido away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.43 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antequera attack 1.38 + El Ejido defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

El Ejido attack 1.16 + Antequera defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Antequera scores more
47%
level
27%
El Ejido scores more
26%

Antequera at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Antequera will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Antequera vs El Ejido

El Ejido beat Antequera 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio El Maulí in Antequera.