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El Álamo vs Cala Pozuelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

El Álamo
El Álamo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cala Pozuelo
Cala Pozuelo
2/1/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 20Estadio Facundo Rivas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

El Álamo43%
×Draw25%
Cala Pozuelo32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Álamo
1.54
Cala Pozuelo
1.30

El Álamo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

El Álamo
1.43
Cala Pozuelo
1.24

allows per match

El Álamo
1.36
Cala Pozuelo
1.65

finishing

El Álamo+0.00on par
Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Álamo ↓

Cala Pozuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

El Álamo or draw
68%
El Álamo or Cala Pozuelo
75%
Draw or Cala Pozuelo
57%

Winning margin

El Álamo wins by 2+
21%
Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

El Álamo 1+ goals
79%
El Álamo 2+ goals
45%
El Álamo 3+ goals
20%
Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals
73%
Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals
37%
Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

El Álamo (draw refunded)
57%
Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Álamo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

Cala Pozuelo away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Álamo attack 1.43 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.24 + El Álamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

El Álamo scores more
43%
level
25%
Cala Pozuelo scores more
32%

El Álamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "El Álamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: El Álamo 1–0 Cala Pozuelo

El Álamo beat Cala Pozuelo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 1, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Facundo Rivas in El Álamo.