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Cala Pozuelo vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Cala Pozuelo
Cala Pozuelo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
9/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 3Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cala Pozuelo45%
×Draw26%
El Álamo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cala Pozuelo
1.48
El Álamo
1.13

Cala Pozuelo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

Cala Pozuelo
1.12
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Cala Pozuelo
1.41
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Cala Pozuelo+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cala Pozuelo ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cala Pozuelo or draw
71%
Cala Pozuelo or El Álamo
74%
Draw or El Álamo
55%

Winning margin

Cala Pozuelo wins by 2+
22%
El Álamo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Cala Pozuelo 1+ goals
77%
Cala Pozuelo 2+ goals
43%
Cala Pozuelo 3+ goals
19%
El Álamo 1+ goals
68%
El Álamo 2+ goals
31%
El Álamo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cala Pozuelo (draw refunded)
61%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cala Pozuelo at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cala Pozuelo attack 1.12 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.48

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Cala Pozuelo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cala Pozuelo scores more
45%
level
26%
El Álamo scores more
29%

Cala Pozuelo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cala Pozuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Cala Pozuelo 2–0 El Álamo

Cala Pozuelo beat El Álamo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Polideportivo El Pradillo in Pozuelo de Alarcón.