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El Álamo vs AD Parla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

El Álamo
El Álamo
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AD Parla
AD Parla
2/21/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 17Estadio Facundo Rivas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

El Álamo46%
×Draw25%
AD Parla29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Álamo
1.54
AD Parla
1.18

El Álamo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 98 away

creates per match

El Álamo
1.43
AD Parla
0.99

allows per match

El Álamo
1.36
AD Parla
1.65

finishing

El Álamo+0.00on par
AD Parla+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Álamo ↓

AD Parla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

El Álamo or draw
71%
El Álamo or AD Parla
75%
Draw or AD Parla
54%

Winning margin

El Álamo wins by 2+
23%
AD Parla wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

El Álamo 1+ goals
79%
El Álamo 2+ goals
45%
El Álamo 3+ goals
20%
AD Parla 1+ goals
69%
AD Parla 2+ goals
33%
AD Parla 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

El Álamo (draw refunded)
61%
AD Parla (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Álamo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Álamo attack 1.43 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54

AD Parla attack 0.99 + El Álamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

El Álamo scores more
46%
level
25%
AD Parla scores more
29%

El Álamo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "El Álamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Álamo vs AD Parla

El Álamo and AD Parla drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Facundo Rivas in El Álamo.