El Álamo vs AD Parla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 47+ matches
El Álamo46%
AD Parla29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
El Álamo creates 31% more chances
Season form · 47 home / 98 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
El Álamo ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
El Álamo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches
AD Parla away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.65 · 98 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
El Álamo attack 1.43 + AD Parla defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.54
AD Parla attack 0.99 + El Álamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
El Álamo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "El Álamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
L'Hospitalet
Terrassa
Sant Andreu
Europa Fc
Vilassar Mar
Granollers
Peralada
Vilafranca
Pobla Mafumet
Manresa
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Castelldefels
Horta
Figueres
Santfeliuenc
San Cristóbal
Banyoles
Sants
Igualada
Reus
Villanovense
CD Coria
Cacereño
Extremadura UD II
Moralo
Jerez
Trujillo
Arroyo
Aceuchal
Diocesano
Azuaga
Olivenza
Plasencia
Calamonte
Montijo
Miajadas
Fuente Cantos
Llerenense
RCP Valverdeño
Valdivia
Tarazona
Teruel
Brea
Real Zaragoza II
Cuarte
San Juan Mozarrifar
Borja
Illueca
Sariñena
Binéfar
Barbastro
Fraga
Utebo
Atlético Monzón
Robres
CDJ Tamarite
Calamocha
Belchite 97
Villanueva CF
Valdefierro
Almudévar
Compostela
Ourense CF
Arosa
Barco
Choco
Arzúa
Deportivo La Coruña II
UD Ourense
Polvorín
Estradense
Silva
Arenteiro
Villalbés
Bergantiños
Somozas
Alondras
As Pontes
Rápido Bouzas
Pontellas
Paiosaco
Real Betis II
Ciudad de Lucena
Utrera
Xerez Deportivo
AD Ceuta FC
Sevilla III
Antoniano
Puente Genil
Conil
Rota
Coria CF
San Roque Lepe
Lebrijana
Gerena
Los Barrios
Xerez
Arcos
Pozoblanco
Córdoba II
Écija
Poblense
Ibiza Islas Pitiusas
Mallorca II
Felanitx
Platges Calvià
Andratx
Formentera
Constància
San Rafael
Ferriolense
Sóller
Binissalem
Santanyí
Llosetense
Manacor
Alcúdia
Portmany
Santa Catalina Atlético
Collerense
Esporles
Tenisca
Tamaraceite
Marino
UD San Fernando
Atlético Paso
Tenerife II
Vera
Panadería Pulido
Gran Tarajal
Unión Viera
La Cuadra
Mensajero
Santa Úrsula
Las Palmas III
Lanzarote
Atlético Tacoronte
Güímar
Ibarra
Buzanada
Villa Santa Brígida
Lorca Deportiva
Atlético Pulpileño
Mar Menor
Real Murcia II
Mazarrón FC
UCAM Murcia II
SFC Minerva
Muleño
Los Garres
Cartagena FC
Deportiva Minera
EDMF Churra
El Palmar
Huércal Overa
ÁguilasCartagena FC
Olímpico Totana
CAP Ciudad de Murcia
Plus Ultra
Mutilvera
San Juan
Beti Kozkor
Pamplona
Huarte
Peña Sport
Cirbonero
Txantrea
Burladés
Valle Egüés
Beti Onak
Cortes
Corellano
Murchante
Lourdes
Ardoi
Peña Azagresa
Subiza
Baztán
Fontellas
SD Logroñés
Varea
Casalarreina
Arnedo
UD Logroñés II
Anguiano
Náxara
Oyonesa
Calahorra II
Alfaro
River Ebro
Berceo
Pradejón
Vianés
Alberite
Comillas
Calasancio
La Calzada
Yagüe
Villegas
Socuéllamos
Quintanar del Rey
Toledo
Guadalajara
Atlético Ibañés
Calvo Sotelo
Conquense
Tarancón
Albacete II
La Solana
Torrijos
Azuqueca
Villacañas
La Roda
Almagro
Illescas
Pedroñeras
Madridejos
Almansa
Portugalete
Sestao River
Vitoria
Basconia
JD Somorrostro
Gernika
San Ignacio
Pasaia KE
Santutxu
Balmaseda
Sodupe
Santurtzi
Real Sociedad III
Beasain
Durango
Urduliz
Tolosa
Deusto
Lagun Onak
Ariznabarra
Alcoyano
Alzira
Atzeneta
Villarreal III
Intercity
Eldense
Saguntino
RC Catarroja
Novelda
Olímpic Xàtiva
Jove Español
Roda
Crevillente
Hércules II
Elche II
Paterna
Vilamarxant
Acero
Silla
Benigànim
Navalcarnero
Unión Adarve
Alcorcón II
RSD Alcalá
Trival Valderas
Leganés II
Móstoles
Pozuelo Alarcón
Rayo Vallecano II
Flat Earth
Santa Ana
Carabanchel
Atlético Pinto
TorrejónEl Álamo
Moratalaz
San Fernando Henares
Alcobendas SportAD Parla
Villaverde-Boetticher
Zamora
Gimnástica Segoviana
Arandina
Numancia II
Burgos Promesas
Cristo Atlético
Atlético Astorga
Real Ávila
Salamanca II
Almazán
Real Burgos
Cultural Leonesa II
Bupolsa
UD Santa Marta
Becerril Campos
La Virgen del Camino
Atlético Tordesillas
La Bañeza
Mirandés II
Bembibre
La Granja
Linares Deportivo
El Ejido
Motril
Real Jaén
Almería II
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Antequera
El Palo
Málaga II
Loja
Mancha Real
Huétor Tájar
Torreperogil
Maracena
Polideportivo Almería
Vélez
Huétor Vega
Melilla CD
Atlético Porcuna
Alhaurín
Lealtad
Llanera
Covadonga
Caudal
Tuilla
Llanes
Urraca
Gijón Industrial
L'Entregu
Praviano
Condal
Mosconia
Navarro
Lenense
Ceares
Vallobín
Real Avilés
San Martín
Colunga
Siero
Laredo
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Racing Santander II
Tropezón
Escobedo
Bezana
Barreda
Barquereño
Guarnizo
Siete Villas
Torina
Sámano
Selaya
Textil Escudo
Solares
Atlético Albericia
Vimenor
Ribamontán al Mar
CartesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
El Álamo host AD Parla on Sunday, 5 April 2020 at 00:00. The match is part of the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019/2020 season.
El Álamo face AD Parla (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 returns with El Álamo hosting AD Parla. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
El Álamo host AD Parla at Estadio Facundo Rivas.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.