Ekwendeni Hammers 0–1 Bangwe All Stars

Ekwendeni Hammers

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bangwe All Stars

8/30/2023

Super League · Round 16Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers48%

×Draw29%

Bangwe All Stars23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ekwendeni HammersExpected goals in this matchBangwe All Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.80

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.29

Bangwe All Stars

0.80

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 61% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 30 away

1.11

creates per match

0.73

0.87

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.11

Bangwe All Stars

0.73

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.87

Bangwe All Stars

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Bangwe All Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw

77%

Ekwendeni Hammers or Bangwe All Stars

71%

Draw or Bangwe All Stars

52%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+

22%

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals

72%

Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals

37%

Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals

14%

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals

55%

Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals

19%

Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)

67%

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Bangwe All Stars away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Bangwe All Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bangwe All Stars attack 0.73 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more

48%

level

29%

Bangwe All Stars scores more

23%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff