Bangwe All Stars 0–0 Ekwendeni Hammers

Bangwe All Stars

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ekwendeni Hammers

6/23/2024

Super League · Round 8Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bangwe All Stars47%

×Draw28%

Ekwendeni Hammers25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bangwe All StarsExpected goals in this matchEkwendeni Hammers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.88

Bangwe All Stars

1.32

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.88

Bangwe All Stars creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 75 away

1.07

creates per match

0.89

0.87

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Bangwe All Stars

1.07

Ekwendeni Hammers

0.89

allows per match

Bangwe All Stars

0.87

Ekwendeni Hammers

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bangwe All Stars+0.00on par

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangwe All Stars ↓

Ekwendeni Hammers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bangwe All Stars or draw

75%

Bangwe All Stars or Ekwendeni Hammers

72%

Draw or Ekwendeni Hammers

53%

Winning margin

Bangwe All Stars wins by 2+

22%

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bangwe All Stars 1+ goals

73%

Bangwe All Stars 2+ goals

38%

Bangwe All Stars 3+ goals

15%

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals

59%

Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals

22%

Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Bangwe All Stars (draw refunded)

65%

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangwe All Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

Ekwendeni Hammers away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.57 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangwe All Stars attack 1.07 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 0.89 + Bangwe All Stars defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bangwe All Stars scores more

47%

level

28%

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more

25%

Bangwe All Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bangwe All Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff