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Ejea vs Ebro — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Ejea
Ejea
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ebro
Ebro
1/31/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Estadio de Luchán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Ejea41%
×Draw32%
Ebro27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ejea
1.03
Ebro
0.77

Ejea creates 34% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Ejea
0.92
Ebro
0.69

allows per match

Ejea
0.85
Ebro
1.15

finishing

Ejea+0.00on par
Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ejea ↓

Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ejea or draw
73%
Ejea or Ebro
68%
Draw or Ebro
59%

Winning margin

Ejea wins by 2+
16%
Ebro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ejea 1+ goals
64%
Ejea 2+ goals
28%
Ejea 3+ goals
9%
Ebro 1+ goals
54%
Ebro 2+ goals
18%
Ebro 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ejea (draw refunded)
60%
Ebro (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ejea at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Ebro away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ejea attack 0.92 + Ebro defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Ebro attack 0.69 + Ejea defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ejea scores more
41%
level
32%
Ebro scores more
27%

Ejea at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ejea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ejea 0 – 0 Ebro

Ejea and Ebro drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Luchán in Ejea de los Caballeros.