Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ebro vs Ejea — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Ebro
Ebro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ejea
Ejea
3/2/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 23Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Ebro46%
×Draw28%
Ejea27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebro
1.34
Ejea
0.95

Ebro creates 41% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 32 away

creates per match

Ebro
1.56
Ejea
1.25

allows per match

Ebro
0.65
Ejea
1.13

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par
Ejea+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Ejea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ebro or draw
73%
Ebro or Ejea
72%
Draw or Ejea
54%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+
21%
Ejea wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals
74%
Ebro 2+ goals
39%
Ebro 3+ goals
15%
Ejea 1+ goals
61%
Ejea 2+ goals
25%
Ejea 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)
63%
Ejea (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Ejea away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.13 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.56 + Ejea defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Ejea attack 1.25 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ebro scores more
46%
level
28%
Ejea scores more
27%

Ebro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ebro vs Ejea

Ebro and Ejea drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Almozara in Zaragoza.