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Ejea vs Deportivo Alavés II — League #876 2026

Ejea
Ejea
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
F. Conte 90'
D. Iglesias 72'
11/2/2025League #876League #876 · Group 2 - 9Estadio de Luchán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ejea32%
×Draw30%
Deportivo Alavés II37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ejea
0.98
Deportivo Alavés II
1.08

Deportivo Alavés II creates 10% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ejea
1.22
Deportivo Alavés II
1.17

allows per match

Ejea
1.00
Deportivo Alavés II
0.75

finishing

Ejea+0.00on par
Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ejea ↓

Deportivo Alavés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ejea or draw
63%
Ejea or Deportivo Alavés II
70%
Draw or Deportivo Alavés II
68%

Winning margin

Ejea wins by 2+
12%
Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ejea 1+ goals
62%
Ejea 2+ goals
26%
Ejea 3+ goals
8%
Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
66%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ejea (draw refunded)
46%
Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ejea at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Deportivo Alavés II away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ejea attack 1.22 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.98

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.17 + Ejea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ejea scores more
32%
level
30%
Deportivo Alavés II scores more
37%

Deportivo Alavés II at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

72'
D. Iglesias
90'
F. Conte
Ejea
Deportivo
Iván Martínez
Manager: Iván Martínez
Molo
Manager: Molo

Match Recap: Ejea vs Deportivo Alavés II

Ejea beat Deportivo Alavés II 2-0 in League #876 on November 2, 2025.

Goals: D. Iglesias (72'), F. Conte (90').

The match was played at Estadio de Luchán in Ejea de los Caballeros.