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Deportivo Alavés II vs Ejea — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Deportivo Alavés II
Deportivo Alavés II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ejea
Ejea
5/9/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 6Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Deportivo Alavés II43%
×Draw30%
Ejea27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Alavés II
1.18
Ejea
0.87

Deportivo Alavés II creates 36% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 13 away

creates per match

Deportivo Alavés II
1.21
Ejea
0.92

allows per match

Deportivo Alavés II
0.82
Ejea
1.15

finishing

Deportivo Alavés II+0.00on par
Ejea+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Alavés II ↓

Ejea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Alavés II or draw
73%
Deportivo Alavés II or Ejea
70%
Draw or Ejea
57%

Winning margin

Deportivo Alavés II wins by 2+
19%
Ejea wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Deportivo Alavés II 1+ goals
69%
Deportivo Alavés II 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Alavés II 3+ goals
12%
Ejea 1+ goals
58%
Ejea 2+ goals
22%
Ejea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Alavés II (draw refunded)
61%
Ejea (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Alavés II at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

Ejea away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Alavés II attack 1.21 + Ejea defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ejea attack 0.92 + Deportivo Alavés II defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Deportivo Alavés II scores more
43%
level
30%
Ejea scores more
27%

Deportivo Alavés II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Deportivo Alavés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Alavés II vs Ejea

Ejea beat Deportivo Alavés II 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón in Vitoria-Gasteiz.