Eintracht Trier 2–0 TSV Steinbach: Result & Stats

Eintracht Trier

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

TSV Steinbach

2/14/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eintracht Trier45%

×Draw22%

TSV Steinbach33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht TrierExpected goals in this matchTSV Steinbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.63

Eintracht Trier

1.95

TSV Steinbach

1.63

Eintracht Trier creates 20% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

2.36

creates per match

2.08

1.18

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Eintracht Trier

2.36

TSV Steinbach

2.08

allows per match

Eintracht Trier

1.18

TSV Steinbach

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par

TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Trier ↓

TSV Steinbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Eintracht Trier or draw

67%

Eintracht Trier or TSV Steinbach

78%

Draw or TSV Steinbach

55%

Winning margin

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+

25%

TSV Steinbach wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals

86%

Eintracht Trier 2+ goals

58%

Eintracht Trier 3+ goals

31%

TSV Steinbach 1+ goals

80%

TSV Steinbach 2+ goals

48%

TSV Steinbach 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)

58%

TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Trier at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Trier attack 2.36 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.95

TSV Steinbach attack 2.08 + Eintracht Trier defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Eintracht Trier scores more

45%

level

22%

TSV Steinbach scores more

33%

Eintracht Trier at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Eintracht

TSV

Manager: T. Klasen

Manager: H. Tahiri