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Eintracht Trier vs TSV Steinbach — League #86 2026

Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
TSV Steinbach
TSV Steinbach
D. Marceta 86'
M. Guthorl 1'
11/21/2025League #86League #86 · Südwest - 18Moselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Eintracht Trier17%
×Draw19%
TSV Steinbach64%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Trier
1.14
TSV Steinbach
2.34

TSV Steinbach creates 105% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Eintracht Trier
1.27
TSV Steinbach
2.86

allows per match

Eintracht Trier
1.82
TSV Steinbach
1.00

finishing

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par
TSV Steinbach+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Trier ↓

TSV Steinbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Eintracht Trier or draw
36%
Eintracht Trier or TSV Steinbach
81%
Draw or TSV Steinbach
83%

Winning margin

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
6%
TSV Steinbach wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
68%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
32%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
11%
TSV Steinbach 1+ goals
90%
TSV Steinbach 2+ goals
67%
TSV Steinbach 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
21%
TSV Steinbach (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Trier at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

TSV Steinbach away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Trier attack 1.27 + TSV Steinbach defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

TSV Steinbach attack 2.86 + Eintracht Trier defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Eintracht Trier scores more
17%
level
19%
TSV Steinbach scores more
64%

TSV Steinbach at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "TSV Steinbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
M. Guthorl
86'
D. Marceta
Eintracht
TSV
T. Klasen
Manager: T. Klasen
H. Tahiri
Manager: H. Tahiri

Match Recap: Eintracht Trier vs TSV Steinbach

Eintracht Trier and TSV Steinbach drew 1-1 in League #86 on November 21, 2025.

Goals: M. Guthorl (1'), D. Marceta (86').

The match was played at Moselstadion in Trier.