Eintracht Trier 2–0 Arminia Ludwigshafen

Eintracht Trier

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arminia Ludwigshafen

7/29/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 1Moselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eintracht Trier67%

×Draw17%

Arminia Ludwigshafen16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht TrierExpected goals in this matchArminia Ludwigshafen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.20

Eintracht Trier

2.58

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.20

Eintracht Trier creates 115% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 79 away

3.00

creates per match

1.87

0.53

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

Eintracht Trier

3.00

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.87

allows per match

Eintracht Trier

0.53

Arminia Ludwigshafen

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Trier ↓

Arminia Ludwigshafen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Eintracht Trier or draw

84%

Eintracht Trier or Arminia Ludwigshafen

83%

Draw or Arminia Ludwigshafen

33%

Winning margin

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+

45%

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals

92%

Eintracht Trier 2+ goals

72%

Eintracht Trier 3+ goals

47%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals

70%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals

34%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)

81%

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Trier at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen away — creates 1.87, concedes 2.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Trier attack 3.00 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.58

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.87 + Eintracht Trier defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Eintracht Trier scores more

67%

level

17%

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more

16%

Eintracht Trier at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff