Arminia Ludwigshafen 3–4 Eintracht Trier

Arminia Ludwigshafen

FT

3 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Eintracht Trier

11/5/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 20Südweststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Arminia Ludwigshafen25%

×Draw20%

Eintracht Trier55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arminia LudwigshafenExpected goals in this matchEintracht Trier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.25

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.46

Eintracht Trier

2.25

Eintracht Trier creates 54% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 34 away

1.83

creates per match

2.71

1.79

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.83

Eintracht Trier

2.71

allows per match

Arminia Ludwigshafen

1.79

Eintracht Trier

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arminia Ludwigshafen+0.00on par

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arminia Ludwigshafen ↓

Eintracht Trier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Arminia Ludwigshafen or draw

45%

Arminia Ludwigshafen or Eintracht Trier

80%

Draw or Eintracht Trier

75%

Winning margin

Arminia Ludwigshafen wins by 2+

11%

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Arminia Ludwigshafen 1+ goals

77%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 2+ goals

43%

Arminia Ludwigshafen 3+ goals

18%

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals

89%

Eintracht Trier 2+ goals

65%

Eintracht Trier 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Arminia Ludwigshafen (draw refunded)

31%

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arminia Ludwigshafen at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

Eintracht Trier away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arminia Ludwigshafen attack 1.83 + Eintracht Trier defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Eintracht Trier attack 2.71 + Arminia Ludwigshafen defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Arminia Ludwigshafen scores more

25%

level

20%

Eintracht Trier scores more

55%

Eintracht Trier at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff