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Eintracht Trier vs Alemannia Waldalgesheim — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
FT
2 – 0
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
9/25/2021Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 9Moselstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Eintracht Trier73%
×Draw16%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Trier
2.57
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
0.88

Eintracht Trier creates 192% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 43 away

creates per match

Eintracht Trier
3.00
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.23

allows per match

Eintracht Trier
0.53
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
2.14

finishing

Eintracht Trier+0.00on par
Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Trier ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Eintracht Trier or draw
89%
Eintracht Trier or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
84%
Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim
27%

Winning margin

Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
51%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
92%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
72%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
47%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
59%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
22%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
87%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Trier at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.53 · 34 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Trier attack 3.00 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.57

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + Eintracht Trier defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Eintracht Trier scores more
73%
level
16%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
11%

Eintracht Trier at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Eintracht Trier 2–0 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Eintracht Trier beat Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Moselstadion in Trier.