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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Eintracht Trier — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Eintracht Trier
Eintracht Trier
9/1/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 8Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim26%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Trier53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.33
Eintracht Trier
1.99

Eintracht Trier creates 50% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 34 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.58
Eintracht Trier
2.71

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.27
Eintracht Trier
1.09

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
Eintracht Trier+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Eintracht Trier →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
47%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Eintracht Trier
78%
Draw or Eintracht Trier
74%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
11%
Eintracht Trier wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
74%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
38%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
15%
Eintracht Trier 1+ goals
86%
Eintracht Trier 2+ goals
59%
Eintracht Trier 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
33%
Eintracht Trier (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Eintracht Trier away — creates 2.71, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + Eintracht Trier defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.33

Eintracht Trier attack 2.71 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
26%
level
22%
Eintracht Trier scores more
53%

Eintracht Trier at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Eintracht Trier will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Alemannia Waldalgesheim 0–2 Eintracht Trier

Eintracht Trier beat Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.