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Eintracht Stadtallendorf vs Baunatal — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baunatal
Baunatal
11/7/2025Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 16Kunstrasenplatz 2 Stadtallendorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf50%
×Draw22%
Baunatal28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.90
Baunatal
1.38

Eintracht Stadtallendorf creates 38% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 92 away

creates per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
2.13
Baunatal
1.51

allows per match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.24
Baunatal
1.67

finishing

Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par
Baunatal+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Stadtallendorf ↓

Baunatal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eintracht Stadtallendorf or draw
72%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf or Baunatal
78%
Draw or Baunatal
50%

Winning margin

Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+
28%
Baunatal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals
85%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals
56%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals
29%
Baunatal 1+ goals
75%
Baunatal 2+ goals
40%
Baunatal 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)
64%
Baunatal (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.24 · 85 matches

Baunatal away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.67 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 2.13 + Baunatal defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Baunatal attack 1.51 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more
50%
level
22%
Baunatal scores more
28%

Eintracht Stadtallendorf at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eintracht Stadtallendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Hessen: Eintracht Stadtallendorf 0–0 Baunatal

Eintracht Stadtallendorf and Baunatal drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on November 7, 2025.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 2 Stadtallendorf in Stadtallendorf.