Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Baunatal vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf — Oberliga - Hessen 2020

Baunatal
Baunatal
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
3/2/2024Oberliga - HessenOberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 22Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Baunatal43%
×Draw24%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baunatal
1.69
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.46

Baunatal creates 16% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 85 away

creates per match

Baunatal
2.03
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.60

allows per match

Baunatal
1.32
Eintracht Stadtallendorf
1.36

finishing

Baunatal+0.00on par
Eintracht Stadtallendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baunatal ↓

Eintracht Stadtallendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Baunatal or draw
67%
Baunatal or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
76%
Draw or Eintracht Stadtallendorf
57%

Winning margin

Baunatal wins by 2+
22%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Baunatal 1+ goals
82%
Baunatal 2+ goals
50%
Baunatal 3+ goals
24%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 1+ goals
77%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 2+ goals
43%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Baunatal (draw refunded)
56%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baunatal at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 92 matches

Eintracht Stadtallendorf away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.36 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baunatal attack 2.03 + Eintracht Stadtallendorf defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.69

Eintracht Stadtallendorf attack 1.60 + Baunatal defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baunatal scores more
43%
level
24%
Eintracht Stadtallendorf scores more
33%

Baunatal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Baunatal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baunatal vs Eintracht Stadtallendorf

Baunatal beat Eintracht Stadtallendorf 6-0 in Oberliga - Hessen on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Parkstadion in Baunatal.