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Eintracht Rheine vs Delbrücker SC — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Delbrücker SC
Delbrücker SC
9/4/2022Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 4OBI-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Rheine54%
×Draw21%
Delbrücker SC25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Rheine
2.10
Delbrücker SC
1.38

Eintracht Rheine creates 52% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 17 away

creates per match

Eintracht Rheine
1.44
Delbrücker SC
1.41

allows per match

Eintracht Rheine
1.34
Delbrücker SC
2.76

finishing

Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par
Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Rheine ↓

Delbrücker SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Eintracht Rheine or draw
75%
Eintracht Rheine or Delbrücker SC
79%
Draw or Delbrücker SC
46%

Winning margin

Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
32%
Delbrücker SC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
88%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
62%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
35%
Delbrücker SC 1+ goals
75%
Delbrücker SC 2+ goals
40%
Delbrücker SC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
68%
Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Rheine at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.34 · 90 matches

Delbrücker SC away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.44 + Delbrücker SC defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.10

Delbrücker SC attack 1.41 + Eintracht Rheine defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Eintracht Rheine scores more
54%
level
21%
Delbrücker SC scores more
25%

Eintracht Rheine at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Eintracht Rheine will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Eintracht Rheine 0–1 Delbrücker SC

Delbrücker SC beat Eintracht Rheine 1-0 in Oberliga - Westfalen on September 4, 2022.

The match was played at OBI-Arena in Rheine.