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Delbrücker SC vs Eintracht Rheine — Oberliga - Westfalen 2020

Delbrücker SC
Delbrücker SC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Rheine
Eintracht Rheine
3/5/2023Oberliga - WestfalenOberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 21Stadion Laumeskamp Delbrück Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delbrücker SC45%
×Draw23%
Eintracht Rheine32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delbrücker SC
1.79
Eintracht Rheine
1.48

Delbrücker SC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 89 away

creates per match

Delbrücker SC
1.35
Eintracht Rheine
1.54

allows per match

Delbrücker SC
1.41
Eintracht Rheine
2.22

finishing

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par
Eintracht Rheine+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delbrücker SC ↓

Eintracht Rheine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Delbrücker SC or draw
68%
Delbrücker SC or Eintracht Rheine
77%
Draw or Eintracht Rheine
55%

Winning margin

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+
24%
Eintracht Rheine wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals
83%
Delbrücker SC 2+ goals
53%
Delbrücker SC 3+ goals
26%
Eintracht Rheine 1+ goals
77%
Eintracht Rheine 2+ goals
43%
Eintracht Rheine 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)
58%
Eintracht Rheine (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delbrücker SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Eintracht Rheine away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.22 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delbrücker SC attack 1.35 + Eintracht Rheine defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

Eintracht Rheine attack 1.54 + Delbrücker SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Delbrücker SC scores more
45%
level
23%
Eintracht Rheine scores more
32%

Delbrücker SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Delbrücker SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Westfalen: Delbrücker SC 1–2 Eintracht Rheine

Eintracht Rheine beat Delbrücker SC 2-1 in Oberliga - Westfalen on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Laumeskamp Delbrück Kunstrasen in Delbrück.