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Eintracht Norderstedt vs Bremer SV — League #84 2026

Eintracht Norderstedt
Eintracht Norderstedt
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Bremer SV
Bremer SV
N. Werner 87'
D. Michel 84'
L. G. Schmidt 61'
10/12/2025League #84League #84 · North - 14Edmund-Plambeck-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Eintracht Norderstedt31%
×Draw23%
Bremer SV46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Norderstedt
1.43
Bremer SV
1.80

Bremer SV creates 26% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

creates per match

Eintracht Norderstedt
1.60
Bremer SV
1.88

allows per match

Eintracht Norderstedt
1.72
Bremer SV
1.25

finishing

Eintracht Norderstedt+0.00on par
Bremer SV+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Norderstedt ↓

Bremer SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eintracht Norderstedt or draw
54%
Eintracht Norderstedt or Bremer SV
77%
Draw or Bremer SV
69%

Winning margin

Eintracht Norderstedt wins by 2+
14%
Bremer SV wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Eintracht Norderstedt 1+ goals
76%
Eintracht Norderstedt 2+ goals
42%
Eintracht Norderstedt 3+ goals
17%
Bremer SV 1+ goals
83%
Bremer SV 2+ goals
54%
Bremer SV 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Norderstedt (draw refunded)
40%
Bremer SV (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Norderstedt at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.72 · 25 matches

Bremer SV away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Norderstedt attack 1.60 + Bremer SV defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Bremer SV attack 1.88 + Eintracht Norderstedt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Eintracht Norderstedt scores more
31%
level
23%
Bremer SV scores more
46%

Bremer SV at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bremer SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'
L. G. Schmidt
84'
D. Michel
87'
N. Werner
Eintracht
Bremer
Elard Ostermann
Manager: Elard Ostermann
S. Kmieć
Manager: S. Kmieć

League #84: Eintracht Norderstedt 0–3 Bremer SV

Bremer SV beat Eintracht Norderstedt 3-0 in League #84 on October 12, 2025.

Goals: L. G. Schmidt (61'), D. Michel (84'), N. Werner (87').

The match was played at Edmund-Plambeck-Stadion in Norderstedt.