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Bremer SV vs Eintracht Norderstedt — League #84 2026

Bremer SV
Bremer SV
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Eintracht Norderstedt
Eintracht Norderstedt
J. Warm 57'
A. Diedhiou 2'
4/26/2026League #84League #84 · North - 31Stadion am Panzenberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bremer SV42%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Norderstedt36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bremer SV
1.85
Eintracht Norderstedt
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bremer SV
1.83
Eintracht Norderstedt
1.42

allows per match

Bremer SV
2.00
Eintracht Norderstedt
1.88

finishing

Bremer SV+0.00on par
Eintracht Norderstedt+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bremer SV ↓

Eintracht Norderstedt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bremer SV or draw
64%
Bremer SV or Eintracht Norderstedt
78%
Draw or Eintracht Norderstedt
58%

Winning margin

Bremer SV wins by 2+
22%
Eintracht Norderstedt wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bremer SV 1+ goals
84%
Bremer SV 2+ goals
55%
Bremer SV 3+ goals
28%
Eintracht Norderstedt 1+ goals
82%
Eintracht Norderstedt 2+ goals
51%
Eintracht Norderstedt 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bremer SV (draw refunded)
54%
Eintracht Norderstedt (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bremer SV at home — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Eintracht Norderstedt away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bremer SV attack 1.83 + Eintracht Norderstedt defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.85

Eintracht Norderstedt attack 1.42 + Bremer SV defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bremer SV scores more
42%
level
22%
Eintracht Norderstedt scores more
36%

Bremer SV at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bremer SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. Diedhiou
57'
J. Warm
Bremer
Eintracht
S. Kmieć
Manager: S. Kmieć
Elard Ostermann
Manager: Elard Ostermann

Bremer SV 2 – 0 Eintracht Norderstedt

Bremer SV beat Eintracht Norderstedt 2-0 in League #84 on April 26, 2026.

Goals: A. Diedhiou (2'), J. Warm (57').

The match was played at Stadion am Panzenberg in Bremen.