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Eintracht Münchberg vs Eichstätt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Eintracht Münchberg
Eintracht Münchberg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Eichstätt
Eichstätt
F. Seifert 57'
N. Leipold 82'
F. Nitaj 44'
D. Hofrichter 30'
8/13/2024Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 6FORTUNA-ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Eintracht Münchberg18%
×Draw20%
Eichstätt63%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Münchberg
1.08
Eichstätt
2.21

Eichstätt creates 105% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 35 away

creates per match

Eintracht Münchberg
0.82
Eichstätt
2.23

allows per match

Eintracht Münchberg
2.18
Eichstätt
1.34

finishing

Eintracht Münchberg+0.00on par
Eichstätt+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Münchberg ↓

Eichstätt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Eintracht Münchberg or draw
37%
Eintracht Münchberg or Eichstätt
80%
Draw or Eichstätt
82%

Winning margin

Eintracht Münchberg wins by 2+
6%
Eichstätt wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Eintracht Münchberg 1+ goals
66%
Eintracht Münchberg 2+ goals
29%
Eintracht Münchberg 3+ goals
10%
Eichstätt 1+ goals
89%
Eichstätt 2+ goals
65%
Eichstätt 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Münchberg (draw refunded)
22%
Eichstätt (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Münchberg at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Eichstätt away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Münchberg attack 0.82 + Eichstätt defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.08

Eichstätt attack 2.23 + Eintracht Münchberg defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Eintracht Münchberg scores more
18%
level
20%
Eichstätt scores more
63%

Eichstätt at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Eichstätt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
D. Hofrichter
44'
F. Nitaj
57'
F. Seifert
82'
N. Leipold

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Eintracht Münchberg vs Eichstätt

Eichstätt beat Eintracht Münchberg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on August 13, 2024.

Goals: D. Hofrichter (30'), F. Nitaj (44'), F. Seifert (57'), N. Leipold (82').

The match was played at FORTUNA-ARENA in Münchberg.